Bwahahaha...
Last weekend I drove over the hills from Oakland to Dublin, CA. It's a mere 25 miles but I discovered a world apart from my über-liberal San Francisco environs.
Better know a district on the flip:
As the stats below show, CA-11 is predominantly white, upper-class, suburbia and the Dublin/Pleasanton area where I canvassed is especially so.
In 2004 Pombo defeated McNerney 61% to 39%. Is there really a chance to turn this around in 2006?
Hell yes!
The most recent poll (Oct. 24-26) coming from Majority Watch has McNerney ahead 48/46 MOE ± 3.1%
Earlier this month, surveys conducted by Democratic firms showed similar results: a statistical dead heat.
From CQ Politics
... while the NRCC has, according to Federal Election Commission reports, paid for two internal polls in the district to gauge voter preferences in the 11th District, the committee has not released any results.
Democrats, on the other hand, have not hesitated to publicize two "own" polls that purport to show a tossup race. A survey conducted by the Democratic firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner showed McNerney actually leading by 48 percent to 46 percent. A poll by Lake Research, another Democratic firm, showed Pombo with a statistically insignificant lead of 41 percent to 40 percent.
So we're essentially tied, if not ahead, at this point. That's a pretty big swing from 60/40.
The only thing that matters now is GOTV!
Here's my story...
When I got to the Dublin office on Saturday everything was extremely well organized. Lots of motivated people were showing up for phone banking and canvassing.
And look who else was there! McNerney warmly shook my hand. Go Jerry!
John gave a quick training on what to say to the voters and how to tally their responses. Then we picked partners and procured our precinct packets.
On our way to Pleasanton we got stuck in traffic due to this flame-out. Portentous for Pombo, most probably.
On Saturday my wonderful canvassing partner was George from Berkeley: gay, Bush hater, nuff said.
The neighborhood we went to was mainly upper middle class single-family homes on cul-de-sac streets with cutesy wine names, Claret Ct., Merlot Ct., Riesling Dr. We were happy to see that McNerney lawn signs outnumbered Pombo by 10:1. Unfortunately, on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon most the contacts were NH (not home). Out of about 80 homes we got 6 McNerney supporters (including one who voted for Pombo twice in the past), 2 Pombo, and a few Undecided.
On Sunday I was paired up with Steve. He told me he'd been a Republican for 30 years and was so angry about Bush and the war that he had to work for a Dem this time. Even though the campaign told us not to bother trying to change minds of any Pombo supporters (just thank them for their time and move on) this guy was actually doing a great job selling McNerney. I guess it takes one to know one. Hopefully he turned some folks around.
We were in a similar neighborhood as the day before but it seemed significantly more family-oriented based on the extravagant Halloween displays. There were hardly any signs in the yards. In my mind this translated to people with busy family lives having less time to pay attention to politics. Either that or they didn't want the signs to clash with their yards full of ghosts, graveyards and spider webs. Our results showed a significantly higher number of contacts: 51 out of 106 were home. Of those, we had 25 for McNerney, 8 for Pombo, and the rest Undecided or Refused to talk.
Based on this very limited and focused set of voters we're looking at a 3:1 margin for McNerney. If this populated area is able to carry the district, I do believe Richard Pombo is going down! Down to the netherworlds.
See you in hell Dick!
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